7 inch iPad Would Be a Canary in a Coal Mine

The rumors about a 7 inch iPad just don’t ring true to me.

• Steve Jobs himself said there was no need for one.
• Evidence shows that the smaller the screen, the less internet use.
• A 1024×768 resolution at that size would make UI elements too small for hand and eye.
• A retina display at that size would still have the UI element problem.
• It would also introduce a touchscreen yield problem that would likely make it cost more rather than less than the 10 inch iPad.
• Squeezing the other components of an “amazingly great” tablet into the form-factor would increase cost.
• Using any other resolution would introduce complexity to an app ecosystem that is thriving. Today, you design and produce for two form factors – phone and tablet – and two resolutions – legacy and retina. A resolution that isn’t an integer multiple in both dimensions is problematic for existing apps and producing new ones.

Therefore, I believe that the likelihood of a 7 inch iPad is vanishingly small, and that if Jobs were around, it would never happen. So, if it does happen, I believe it will represent the “post-Jobs change” that people are predicting or watching for. Will it really be a “canary in a coal mine”? No, Apple won’t explode or die anytime soon. But, for me, it would a sign that something fundamental changed in their decision making. A 7 inch iPad is not the insanely simple choice.

So, if the origins of the rumor have some basis in truth, I suspect they are about experimental devices, or potentially a new category of device.