Windows 8, RT, Phone will Flop

I’m going to go on the record here that Windows 8 is the new Vista (or Millenium Edition), and probably worse. All the thoughtful reviews I’ve read find it confusing to both new users and existing power users. I’m recommending to friends and family to buy new PCs now if they need one so they don’t get stuck trying to use Win8 or go through the pain of trying to downgrade to 7 (which is only supported for Pro versions).

At the same time, PC sales are declining, and mobile phones and tablets are skyrocketing. Lumia sales are lackluster, and I believe the Surface (Zune, anyone?) will be dead on arrival.

I think Microsoft’s only chance at sustaining itself – and maybe even growing – is an “Office Everywhere” approach with linkages to Sharepoint and Office 365 offerings.

I’ve been a user of Windows and Microsoft applications for a long time, and I was a developer and fan for many years. Windows 7 is a good operating system. Office set the standard for everyone. Their developer tools and conferences are great. But they have to find a new business model, and they are coming late to the party – very late.

UPDATE: Walt Mossberg’s review of Windows 8 on AllThingsD. He agrees that the change will be confusing for most, but may end up being worth it. I disagree about it being worth it. Stick with Win7 if you have to stay in Windows, but a better option is to switch to a Mac. (This is the first time in my life that I believe this is the best choice for nearly everyone. )

UPDATE 2: Great animated review/bashing of Win8. The news is not getting better. Win8 is a hot mess.

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